Mar 1, 2026; Clearwater, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter (76) walks off the field after pitching against the New York Yankees in the first inning during spring training at BayCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Nathan Ray Seebeck
Make of this what you will.
Andrew Painter made his second Grapefruit League start Saturday against the Blue Jays, and limited a Toronto lineup that was lacking most of its stars to one hit over three scoreless frames.
However, statistician Thomas Nestico had some harsh grades for Painter's second outing:
Update on the "loud contact" comment. Had some math wrong. Not nearly as bad as the previous graphic would indicate
Still, not an inspiring outing for Painter, mostly due to his fastball concerns pic.twitter.com/t5r6n3HGrZ
Let's focus on a couple of these metrics specifically. The first is tjStuff+, where the average is 100. Painter's fastball received a 90 tjStuff+ Saturday. Nestico's 20-80 grading system gave Painter's fastball a 38 grade.
While some people's eyes glaze over reading these metrics, if you watched the game — which was admittedly not easy to do because it wasn't on traditional TV — your eyes back this up. Painter really struggled with fastball command, particularly early in the game. He did average 96.3 mph on the fastball, which is good. But he didn't control it well, and obviously not all 96 mph fastballs are created equal.
"I didn't have my best stuff today," Painter said after Saturday's start. "But you have to go out there and compete. You have to get yourself out of it."
OnPattison's Grace Del Pizzo covered the game, and wrote an interesting postgame story about the in-outing adjustments that Painter made Saturday to help him find success without recording a strikeout. And there is absolutely value in being able to get hitters out even on days where you don't have your best stuff.
With that said, Painter received a slightly below average 99 tjStuff+ and 52 fastball grade (again, on a 20-80 scale) for his first Grapefruit League start on March 1 against the New York Yankees:
Andrew Painter (#38 Prospect) made his debut!
Painter’s velocity was right in line with his 2025 numbers, but has lagged behind his peak from his pro debut. The shape of his fastball looks depressed too. Hopefully we see its efficacy tick up throughout the Spring pic.twitter.com/3YThR42YxE
None of this is to say that Painter shouldn't be in pole position to be the final starter in the Phillies rotation to begin the season. Results are the most important thing, and Painter hasn't allowed a run in five innings so far this spring. Also, he's probably better trying to work through some of these issues in the majors at this point.
At the same time, when you have this information at your disposal, it's useful, especially when it backs up some of what you've seen with your eyes. There, of course, will be some more adrenaline when the games actually matter, although velocity hasn't really been the issue for Painter so far. It's the quality of the velocity. We don't know exactly what Painter and the Phillies have been trying to accomplish in his first two outings, but based on this — and that only one of the 15 outs he's recorded so far this spring has come via the strikeout — there's still some work to do for Painter to get his fastball back to where it was before he had Tommy John surgery in July of 2023.
That doesn't mean he won't be able to have any success at the majors, but to reach the lofty ceiling that's been projected on him for years now, some growth still needs to take place. The takeaway here isn't to panic, but also don't bury your head in the sand — the quality of Painter's fastball is worth monitoring.
