Zack Wheeler (left) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (right) headline two of the best starting rotations in baseball. (USA Today)
Cristopher Sánchez said in a media availability this week that assuming health the Phillies have "one of the best rotations, if not the best."
He's definitely right that the Phillies have one of the best, as most evaluators would point to them, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners as having the top four starting rotations in baseball.
Let's set aside the Mariners for a second. For as impressive as their starting rotation is, they've done little this offseason to improve a feckless offense that caused them to miss the postseason last year. They're also in the American League West, so to a degree, they are out of sight, out of mind for the Phillies.
The Diamondbacks rotation just made a big addition with Corbin Burnes, but will need Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez to rebound from injury-riddled 2024 seasons, and Jordan Montgomery to rebound period if he's still with the team.
With all due respect to the Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets and San Diego Padres, the Dodgers represent the top competition to the Phillies in the National League. They are the defending World Series Champions and have, just about any way you look at it, improved this offseason.
Specifically, the starting rotation in Los Angeles should be markedly better in 2025 than it was in 2024. The Dodgers signed two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, along with top Japanese prospect Roki Sasaki. They won a World Series without Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May available to pitch, but all project to be on the mound in 2025. Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw is still expected to return in some form. And Yoshinobu Yamamoto posted a 3.00 ERA across 18 starts in his first MLB season, and did return from a triceps injury in time to make four postseason starts.
From @TimKellySports: Cristopher Sánchez on the Phillies' starting rotation
"Yeah, just being honest, this is one of the best rotations, if not the best. As long as we all stay healthy, we'll be one of the best." pic.twitter.com/3UDMAbjm5W
The Phillies, though, compare pretty well with the Dodgers. Zack Wheeler finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting last year, and leads all pitchers in WAR over the last five seasons. Aaron Nola is probably the most durable starter of this era. The aforementioned Sánchez was an All-Star a season ago. As was Ranger Suárez, although a back injury derailed the second half of his season. Jesús Luzardo may not have been as sexy of a pickup this offseason as Snell or Sasaki, but he posted a 3.48 ERA over 50 starts for the Miami Marlins between 2022 and 2023, so a healthy version of him would be a huge addition. And No. 1 overall prospect Andrew Painter is looming, expected to make his debut at some point this summer.
So how do the two starting rotations compare?
Well, the Phillies definitely have an advantage in terms of durability. Over the last five seasons, Nola leads all starters with 850 innings pitched. Wheeler is No. 2 with 829 1/3. Sánchez even logged 181 2/3 frames last year. Suárez, Luzardo and Painter all have durability concerns to varying degrees, but you can live with that when the top three — the two top for sure — feel like guarantees to pitch close to 200 innings every year.
When you compare that to the Dodgers, Snell pitched 104 innings a year ago, and his high water mark is 180 2/3. Yamamoto pitched 90 innings in his rookie season. Sasaki never pitched more than 129 1/3 innings in Japan. Ohtani, Gonsolin and May are all coming off of major injuries. Kershaw will be 37 in March and hasn't pitched more than 131 2/3 innings in a season since 2019.
What's crazy is that Tyler Glasnow — who didn't pitch after Aug. 11 last season — threw the most innings in 2024 of any returning Dodgers starter at 134 innings. That was a career-high for Glasnow, an electric pitcher but one who has an unfortunate last name given his struggles to last through a full season in his career.
Give the Dodgers credit, though, they are prepared to use well more than five pitchers in 2025. And it's worth remembering what they have on top of Snell, Sasaki and Yamamoto. Yes, there are injury concerns, but when some of these guys are on the mound, they are special.
Shohei Ohtani, K'ing the Side in the 7th.
11 Ks.
The most talented baseball player on the planet. pic.twitter.com/GCVo8fwR5c
Ohtani — He's a better hitter than he is a pitcher, which is incredible give that he has a 3.01 ERA across 86 career starts.
Gonsolin — He was an All-Star in 2022, going 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA over 130 1/3 innings. Considering his Tommy John surgery came in August of 2023, he should be good to go again this season.
Glasnow — The 22 starts he made a season ago were a career-high, but in them he posted a 3.46 ERA and struck out 168 batters. When he's on the mound, Glasnow is one of the most dominant starters in baseball.
Kershaw — With over 2,700 innings logged in his career, there's a chance that his body has just hit a wall. With that said, the three-time NL Cy Young Award winner went 25-8 with a 2.37 ERA across 46 starts between 2022 and 2023. If he can make it to the mound, he'll probably still be effective.
May — A former top prospect, May has never been able to stay healthy. He's got front-of-the-rotation stuff and a 3.10 ERA across 191 2/3 innings in his MLB career.
This says nothing of Bobby Miller, who looked like an emerging star in 2023 before a shoulder injury turned 2024 into a disaster. Also at Triple-A is Landon Knack, who posted a 3.65 ERA over 69 innings at the MLB level last season.
The Dodgers may have won a World Series last year despite not having what was traditionally seen as enough starting pitching to win in October. They aren't trying to replicate that formula in 2025, as once Kershaw officially signs back in LA, they'll have as many as 10 starters who could be in most rotations. Granted, they have reason to believe they'll need more than five, but they are set up to handle the war of attrition this time around, and each new arm they will cycle in has high-end upside.
“I believe [Andrew Painter] is going to be a star. He’s mature beyond his years. Pounded the zone, not afraid of anyone, just going out there and throwing strikes. Very special.”
-Carlos Correa, Spring Training 2023pic.twitter.com/KdFhmKE4nq
The Phillies will opt for a more traditional approach. And if Wheeler, Nola and Sánchez each log 180+ innings again in 2025, it would be hard to argue with their strategy. For all the concerns about Suárez holding up, he's averaged 143 2/3 innings pitched over the last three years, which would be a lot for the Dodgers. Luzardo is coming off of a lost season with the Miami Marlins, so he has to prove he can stay healthy. But again, Painter — who will be close to two years removed from Tommy John surgery by the time he debuts — gives the Phillies a sixth option. Joe Ross was signed as a swing-man who could make spot starts if the Phillies were in a pinch. And they'll see in Spring Training if after an offseason of doing a weighted ball program if Taijuan Walker has anything left in his arm.
Who gets the final edge? It's still hard to argue with the durability of the Phillies rotation. With that said, the Dodgers have a better lineup and bullpen than the Phillies, plus they are much better equipped in the starting rotation than they were in 2024. So the Phillies get the nod on the rotation, but the Dodgers remain the clear favorites to win the NL pennant.
Want more Philadelphia Phillies news delivered straight to your inbox? Sign up for THE Philly Sports Newsletter here. 100% free, always.
