Jul 16, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) and second baseman Bryson Stott (5) against the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports Eric Hartline
The Phillies will open the 2025 season at 4:05 against the Washington Nationals on March 27. Lefty MacKenzie Gore will likely get the ball for the Nats. Here's the first look at what Rob Thomson's Opening Day lineup could look like at Nationals Park.
This may surprise some people, but Thomson opened the door in his season-ending press conference to having someone other than Kyle Schwarber lead off. With little change in the personnel in the lineup, one way to shake things up is to at least try a different order.
The Phillies want Stott to make contact and steal bases, and this could be a way of trying to speak that into existence. The version of Stott who hit .301 in the first half of the 2023 season would be an excellent table-setter for this lineup. However, he's hit .248 in 759 regular-season at-bats since, and he won't be long for the top spot if he fails to produce.
Still, there's a very real chance the Phillies throw fans who want to see a more traditional leadoff hitter — or what they deem to be a more traditional leadoff hitter — a bone to start the season. In a lineup with so many lefties, it feels like you need to have a lefty at the top of the lineup, as opposed to having Trea Turner lead off and then a ton of lefties bunched up.
Phillies Mailbag with @AntSanPhilly: Will Kyle Schwarber Lead Off in 2025? - @OnPattison https://t.co/zjxW1WB7r3
— Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) December 31, 2024
The third campaign of Turner's 11-year/$300 million deal needs to be the season that he gets back to being the electric top-of-the-order player who puts the ball in play, does damage with his speed and also can drive the ball out of the ballpark.
He's been a bit uneven over his first two years in red pinstripes, hitting .279 with a .791 OPS and 248 strikeouts over 1,230 plate appearances.
In the two seasons prior to becoming a free agent, Turner hit .312 with an .858 OPS and 241 strikeouts over 1,354 plate appearances.
The Phillies have gotten glimpses of the version of Turner they expected offensively, but not on a consistent enough basis. It would be a massive development if he has another peak year in him in 2025.
Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Francisco Lindor are among the superstars who have found great success leading off. As On Pattison's Anthony SanFilippo said, there's definitely a case to be made for the Phillies trying the same thing with Harper if Schwarber is moved out of the leadoff spot.
But Harper likes hitting third, and there's no reason to think he'll hit elsewhere in 2025. Wherever he's at, he's going to be productive, and while you can make a case for him hitting first or second, the most important thing is that he's guaranteed an at-bat in the first inning.
The Phillies haven't added a big middle-of-the-order bat this offseason. Even if you think Schwarber works as a leadoff hitter, the idea of having him hit cleanup is an interesting one because as someone who has hit 131 home runs in three seasons with the Phillies, he would seem to be the closest thing to a traditional No. 4 hitter.
We'll see whether Schwarber proves to be the right fit in the cleanup spot. Having three out of your first four batters hit lefty may not be ideal, although Schwarber and Harper both killed lefties last season. The biggest issue might not be whether Schwarber can hit fourth, but whether someone else can take over the leadoff spot.
Castellanos did the bulk of his damage last year out of the No. 5 spot, hitting .306 with 14 home runs, 45 RBIs and an .886 OPS. He was much less successful at other spots in the lineup.
He explained why he feels comfortable hitting in the middle of the order, and Castellanos is someone that you shouldn't mess with when he gets in a groove.
Nick Castellanos: “…my style of hitting, which is always like glorified batting practice … I don’t really have an approach, I look for the baseball and hit it as hard as I can…” @PhilliesNation pic.twitter.com/HmZbzbPp6C
Bohm has been mentioned in trade rumors for much of the offseason, and there have been too many credible reports to think that the Phillies weren't seriously willing to consider parting with him. But a trade hasn't surfaced to this point, and it's unclear even if one would, how the Phillies would backfill the third base position in 2025 without making the team worse. It may be that the Phillies end up bringing Bohm back.
There have been a few months in Bohm's career where he's looked like a legitimate star, such as March/April of 2024 when he hit .366 with a 1.036. More frequently, he's been a contact-oriented player that thrives with runners in scoring position, but is also prone to grounding into double plays and letting things snowball when they aren't going his way.
Bohm definitely has value, which is why the Phillies haven't just given him away this offseason. But it's fair to wonder how the 28-year-old will respond after an offseason where his future in Philly was very clearly in flux. What happens if he gets off to a slow start in April and hears some boos at Citizens Bank Park? Will he just keep his head down and work his way through it, or will things spiral?
Dave Dombrowski on Alec Bohm: ‘I Think He’s Going To Come Out and Have a Tremendous Season’ @OnPattison https://t.co/TxRSICRddw
Will Marsh regularly start in center field over Johan Rojas if a lefty is on the mound for the opposing team? Given that he hit .192 with 33 strikeouts in 90 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers a year ago, probably not. But on Opening Day, lineups tend to be less matchup specific.
Marsh homered 16 times, drove in 60 runs and drew 50 walks this past season, so he has shown he can be productive. He's a better left fielder than center fielder, but it's easier to find a left fielder than a center fielder. Marsh can play an adequate center field because he's a very good athlete, even if he sometimes struggles to take command in the outfield the way that someone like Rojas does naturally. The biggest thing offensively — whether he's playing in center or left field — is that Marsh needs to strike out less. He's got some pop, but 32.4% is a very high strikeout percentage for someone who isn't a slugger.
If Stott is going to lead off in a lineup with five left-handed hitters, someone else is going to have to be lowered in the lineup. You could have Realmuto hit seventh with Marsh eighth, but then you'd have three consecutive left-handed hitters, and five out of six. If Stott isn't leading off, Realmuto won't hit this low.
There is a reality that Realmuto is going to be 34 in March. Could he benefit from more-frequent off days as Thomson said in October? Yes. It might also not be the worst thing for him to get a few less at-bats when he's in the lineup. It would also be a lot easier to put Rafael Marchán or Garrett Stubbs in the lineup if they're replacing the No. 8 hitter.
From @TimKellySports: Rob Thomson Has To Do ‘Some Convincing’ To Get J.T. Realmuto To Accept More Frequent off Days
Go here: https://t.co/gBJjbiEbH5 pic.twitter.com/ORDAjbJOay
Inevitably, there will be an injury or underperformance that leads to Realmuto being bumped up in the lineup. Don't be surprised if he opens the season hitting lower than he typically does, though.
If the Phillies get the version of Kepler who hit 24 home runs and posted an .816 OPS in 2023, he's going to be hitting much higher than ninth. But as he tries to rebound from a lost season with the Minnesota Twins where he posted a .682 OPS over 105 games, there's nothing wrong with him being an overqualified No. 9 hitter to start the season.
Also, expect that Weston Wilson will get some at-bats out of the final spot in the lineup as the left fielder against some lefties.
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