If you're a believer in the Sixers' chances of earning a top-2 seed in the Eastern Conference in 2024-25, a Monday afternoon report from Yaron Weitzman only fueled your belief.
According to Weitzman, New York Knicks big man Mitchell Robinson is expected to miss the first few months of the season as he recovers from a foot injury suffered in May.
The Knicks already lost Isaiah Hartenstein to the Oklahoma City Thunder in free agency this summer. Robinson missing a significant chunk of the season only adds to concerns about how New York's lack of size at the rim will affect the Knicks' second-chance offense.
While the Knicks handled the Sixers in six games in the 2024 playoffs, it was quite clear that Jalen Brunson was the only consistent source of first-shot offense for New York. The Knicks scored 97.9 points per 100 halfcourt plays through two playoff rounds in 2024, according to Cleaning The Glass (CTG). That was above average for the 20 teams that played beyond the regular season.
But, the Knicks also ranked first in offensive rebounding rate in the halfcourt in the 2024 playoffs, per CTG.
In other words, the efforts of Hartenstein and Robinson to keep possessions alive off of New York's misses made up for a lack of true shot creation beyond Brunson.
Sure, Mikal Bridges has some off-the-dribble game, is a threatening catch-and-shoot option, and is as good a defensive playmaker as you'll find on the wings in the NBA. But, relying on him to supply secondary creation skills on offense has a ceiling below where the Knicks need to be in the postseason.
As formidable as their perimeter defense will be and as good as their role play is, Brunson's creation and the team's general rebounding prowess are the tentpoles of their offense. They'll win games on talent, but they'll need the second half of their offensive identity to be their best selves.
Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis for the first few months of the season, as well. They'll rely on Al Horford in his stead. But, you wonder what measures they'll take to preserve themselves coming off of a title run. Additionally, two of their starters (and three players in all) participated in Team USA's run to the Olympic gold in Paris, France this summer.
So, the Robinson injury is suddenly a critical development for all three teams. They all, by the way, project to finish in the top three of the east. The Celtics' uncertainty is more of a creation of their own choosing. Perhaps they play it conservatively through the first 82 games, or maybe they don't. But, they'll still be without Porzingis for an extended period of time.
But, the Knicks have no disguise. Robinson's unhealed injury leaves them thinner than they already were at center.
All summer, the discussion was whether or not the Celtics were in a tier by themselves atop the east. Behind them, the Knicks and Sixers existed in some order.
But now?
Well, if Philadelphia stays healthy, it might just be a two-dog race for the top two seeds in the east.