Oct 19, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto (22) celebrates after hitting three run home run during the tenth inning against the Cleveland Guardians during game five of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images David Richard
As someone who covers the Phillies, when I share analysis or opinion, I try not to have it solely based on my perspective. Whether it's statistical backing or someone is quoted or some combination of both, I do my best not to have opinion based on opinion.
For this story, I'm going to break that perspective. This is not sourced in any way.
Should the Phillies try to put together a creative offer to intrigue Juan Soto in free agency? You bet. For as attractive of free agents as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado were after the 2018 season, Soto is going to be even more this winter. He'll turn 26 this week, and already feels like a lock for Cooperstown.
But if you just use common sense for a minute, do you really think the New York Yankees are going to allow Soto to walk in free agency this offseason? He just hit the Yankees equivalent of "Bedlam at the Bank" and caught the final out of a pennant-sealing victory after homering 41 times and posting a .989 OPS during the regular season.
May we once again re-introduce, The Generational, Juan Soto. pic.twitter.com/6R5fWpEg6I
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) October 20, 2024
Hal Steinbrenner may not be his father, George, in terms of how much he's willing to spend. Still, the Yankees have the second-highest payroll in baseball this season, per Spotrac, at just over $309 million. This is by no means a mom-and-pop operation.
The term generational gets widely overused in sports talk today, but Soto is a generational hitter. According to Baseball Reference, the most similar hitters to Soto through his age-25 season in MLB history are Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Trout and Andruw Jones. Rarely have the Yankees ever been outbid for a player they have truly desired, let alone someone just led them to a World Series appearance and whose top tool — his incredible plate approach — figures to age very well.
Again, that doesn't mean that teams like the Phillies, New York Mets and San Francisco Giants shouldn't try to come up with an offer that pushes the Yankees to their limits. Most players aren't going to want a deferral-based deal like Shohei Ohtani got with the Los Angeles Dodgers last offseason, but you can push the limits both in terms of years and dollars.
From @TimKellySports: Should You Make of Report Linking Phillies to Juan Soto?https://t.co/yEkbR5khD3
The longest contract in MLB history belongs to Fernando Tatis, who signed a 14-year/$340 million deal with the Padres. The present-day annual value of Ohtani's deal as far as the luxury tax threshold is concerned is just over $46 million. So offer him a 15-year deal at $50 million per season, which would come out to $750 million. See what happens. It doesn't hurt to drive the price up, because that might mean the Yankees aren't in on another free agent you're interested in down the line, and it also builds up good will with Scott Boras, the most powerful agent in the sport.
But recognize, this is a pipe dream. Soto has gotten to experience what it's like to be a Yankee, and to be one that reaches the World Series. He may soon help deliver them their 28th title. Even though he was at the forefront of the Washington Nationals winning their first World Series in 2019 and reached the NLCS with the San Diego Padres in 2022, Soto feels like someone who was born to wear the pinstripes.
Now that he's delivered one of the most iconic home runs in the modern history of the Yankees, the overwhelming likelihood — regardless of how interested the Phillies, Mets and Giants might be — is that Soto will finish his career in the Bronx.
