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2024 Phillies Postmortem: Bullpen

Jun 11, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Jose Alvarado (46) reacts after defeating the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

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Previous On Pattison Phillies postmortems:

- Infield

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The Fightins' bullpen performance closely tracked the team's overall success in 2024. The group posted a 3.41 ERA before the All-Star break, when the Phillies went 62-34. After the break, the 'pen posted a 4.49 ERA and the team went 33-33. 

And in the postseason? Well, damn.


The Phillies' offense rightfully received the lion's share of blame for the NLDS disaster against the Mets. But whatever happened with the relievers shouldn't be overlooked.

One could argue that the collapse was a random, unfortunate event. After all, that 11.37 ERA is based on just 12.2 innings of work across four games.

But the contrast between the bullpen's first half and second half is stark, and the writing was on the wall before the postseason began.

Here's a look at the individual performers:

Jose Alvarado (age 29, under club control through 2026)

Career: 3.44 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in 342.1 innings

2023: 1.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 41.1 innings

2024: 4.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 61.2 innings

Alvarado was a superhero in 2023, but a mere mortal in '24. One of the most telling numbers for the lefty is strikeouts per nine innings: 14.3 in 2022 (when "Strike one, strike two, and good luck" was born), 13.9 in 2023, and just 9.2 in 2024. The 2024 figure represented his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie year in 2017.

Under contract for $9 million in 2025, Alvarado's performance will be critical for the Phillies.

The Phillies have a club option to bring him back in 2026 for another $9 million. They could also decide to cut ties with a $500,000 buyout.

Jeff Hoffman (age 31, free agent)

Career: 4.82 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in 467 innings

2023: 2.41 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in 52.1 innings

2024: 2.17 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 66.1 innings

Hoffman was selected ninth overall in the 2014 MLB draft, but never found much success until he arrived in Philadelphia for his age 30 season. He alleviated fears that 2023 was a fluke by pitching even better in 2024.

Like almost everyone else on the team, Hoffman was terrible in the NLDS. But a return to the Phillies in 2025 would probably make sense for everyone.

Carlos Estevez (age 31, free agent)

Career: 4.21 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in 419.1 innings

2023: 3.90 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in 62.1 innings

2024: 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP in 55 innings (includes 34 innings with Angels)

Estevez's career trajectory is fairly similar to Hoffman's, the two righties are the same age, and Dave Dombrowski recently indicated that the Phillies probably won't bring them both back. "I would gather that they are both going to get offered long-term, big-dollar contracts," said the president of baseball operations. "I don't see us spending that type of money on two relievers in our bullpen."

If the Phils have to choose one, the smart money is on Hoffman. He has been an integral part of the team for two full years, and while Estevez's numbers are good, Hoffman's are better.

© Gregory Fisher | 2024 Sep 14 Orion Kerkering (age 23, under team control through 2029)

Career: 2.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 66 innings

2023: (Pitched just 3 regular season innings)

2024: 2.29 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 63 innings

In some ways, Kerkering is the Phillies' most important reliever. He's young, talented, and possibly the team's closer of the future. After the Phillies fast-tracked him to the majors in 2023, Kerkering posted a 3.38 ERA in seven postseason appearances.

Kerkering also appeared in all four 2024 NLDS games, logging a 2.45 ERA (one run in 3.2 innings).

If Andrew Painter is the ace of a Phillies' championship team in the year 2029, Kerkering just may be the guy throwing the final pitch.

Matt Strahm (age 32, under contract through 2025, and an option for 2026 vests if he throws 60 innings in '25)

Career: 3.44 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 455 innings

2023: 3.29 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 87.2 innings

2024: 1.87 ERA, 0.75 WHIP in 62.2 innings

Strahm had a hell of a season in 2024, leapfrogging Alvarado as the Phillies' most trusted lefty.

He'll serve as one of the bullpen's anchors again next year.

© Rafael Suanes | 2024 Sep 29

Others

- RHP Jose Ruiz, 29, was a pleasant surprise as a lower-leverage reliever in 2024, registering a 3.71 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 51 innings. He's under club control through 2026.

- Lefty Tanner Banks, 32, joined the team at the trade deadline to replace LHP Gregory Soto (who wanted out because the Phillies shockingly didn't let him and his 1.59 WHIP close out games). Banks posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP for the Phils in 24.1 innings. He's under team control through 2028.

- RHP Yunior Marte, 29, has a big arm but hasn't really figured it out yet. He had a 6.92 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 26 innings in 2024.

 


author

John Foley

Before joining OnPattison.com, John Foley was a Phillies beat writer for PHLY Sports and the founder of a popular independent Phillies newsletter. He has provided nontraditional local sports coverage since 2013. Foley grew up in the Kensington neighborhood of Philadelphia. He's a proud product of the Philadelphia public school system, a Penn State grad, and a Georgetown Law alum. A licensed attorney, he sits on the board of the Papermill Food Hub, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit dedicated to helping families in need throughout the city. Find him on your favorite social media: @2008philz.

Saturday, November 23, 2024
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