Oct 5, 2024; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch against the New York Mets in the seventh inning in game one of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
The Phillies' rotation was among the best in baseball in 2024, despite an ever-rotating cast of characters in the fifth starter role.
Zack Wheeler had another Cy Young-caliber season. He and Aaron Nola combined to throw 399.1 innings in a year where just four major league pitchers cracked 200 IP.
Third starter Cristopher Sanchez pitched like an ace all season long. Ranger Suarez started the season on fire before running into some health issues.
Spencer Turnbull may have been as dominant as any of the others in his handful of starts.
Taijuan Walker was... also on the team.
Here's a look at how the rotation may set up for 2025:
Career: 103-70, 3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.3 K/9. 2.6 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
2023: 13-6, 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
2024: 16-7, 2.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
Wheeler posted career-best numbers in wins, ERA, and WHIP in 2024. All while apparently keeping something in reserve for the postseason, where his fastball sat 98-99 mph after averaging around 95 mph in the regular season.
He will likely finish second in NL Cy Young voting to Atlanta's Chris Sale, but there's a strong argument that he deserves to win.
Wheeler is an absolute monster and shows no signs of slowing down at age 34. He'll be on the mound for the Fightins on 2025 Opening Day.
Zack Wheeler today: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 9 K, 111 pitches (68 strikes)
He entered today’s game with the lowest career postseason WHIP in MLB history… and it went down. pic.twitter.com/Knh7PeIlsJ
Career: 104-79, 3.70 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
2023: 12-9, 4.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
2024: 14-8, 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9
Nola had a very good 2024 season, posting an ERA lower than his career average despite leading the National League in home runs allowed (30).
We may never see the 2018 iteration of Nola again. He won 17 games with a 2.37 ERA and 0.98 WHIP that season, striking out 224 batters in 212.1 innings.
But the 2024 version of Nola would play just fine in 2025.
© Brad Penner | 2024 Oct 8Career: 17-16, 3.70 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
2023: 3-5, 3.44 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9
2024: 11-9, 3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9
When assembling a roster, it's a given that some players will not perform to their historical standards. To counteract that phenomenon, a team needs other guys to step up. It's a bonus if those other guys are young and cheap, like Sanchez.
Sanchez is on an extremely team-friendly contract. He'll make just $2 million in 2025, with his salary gradually rising to $9.5 million in 2028. He could cost the Phils $14 million and $15 million in 2029 and 2030, respectively. But the club has a $1 million buyout option in each of those two final years.
Not bad for a guy with the same career ERA as Aaron Nola (who is on a 7-year, $172 million contract).
Sanchez may have exceeded expectations more than any other Phillie in 2024. If he can continue his success, the team's rotation should remain lethal in the years ahead.
Career: 41-29, 3.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
2023: 4-6, 4.18 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
2024: 12-8, 3.46 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
Suarez was in the Cy Young conversation early in the season, going 10-2 with a 1.83 ERA over his first 16 starts. He struggled after missing time to injury, but rebounded just in time to throw 4.1 scoreless innings in his NLDS start. In 37.2 career postseason innings across three years, Suarez has a 1.43 ERA.
This is the Phillies' projected fourth starter, to be clear. The hope for 2025 is for Suarez to stay healthy and top his career high of 155.1 innings pitched.
© James A. Pittman | 2024 Sep 27Career: 72-63, 4.19 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9
2023: 15-6, 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
2024: 3-7, 7.10 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 2.6 HR/9
Walker's 2024 season was nothing short of a nightmare, and the Phillies organization surely regrets the four-year, $72 million deal they inked with the righthander before the 2023 season. Anticipated to be a fixture in the middle of the Phils' rotation, Walker was unplayable even as a number five guy.
All that ugliness aside, Walker will still have a shot to be a Phillies starter again in 2025. Anything close to his 2023 numbers or career averages would work just fine at the bottom of the rotation. The ERA above 7.00 is not something that previously occurred during Walker's 12 years in the majors, and it's rare for a player with his track record to fall off a cliff at age 32.
Career: 15-29, 4.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
2023: 1-4, 7.26 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
2024: 3-0, 2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
Turnbull was absolutely dominant in six April starts for the '24 Phillies, going 5-1 with a 1.67 ERA. Many fans were outraged when Walker returned from an early-season IL trip and took Turnbull's spot in the rotation, but the club was concerned about how many innings Turnbull's arm could handle during the season. (We'll ignore any speculation on the effect Walker's contract had on the decision.)
Sure enough, Turnbull spent most of the 2024 season on the IL and pitched just 54.1 innings. He has topped 57 innings in a season just once since his MLB debut in 2018.
The Phillies may have interest in bringing Turnbull back. He could be a helpful depth guy for the rotation or a reliever who can go multiple innings. But the club will not count on him to be part of the rotation again in 2025.
© Rick Osentoski | 2024 Jun 26Ah. The prince who was promised.
Painter arrived in Clearwater as a 19-year-old fighting for a starting rotation spot in 2023, but his fast track to the majors was derailed by Tommy John surgery. He's finally back throwing in live game action, participating in the Arizona Fall League. Painter touched 100 mph in his first AFL start.
The hype around Painter is enormous, and it's justified. This is the type of pitcher that can anchor the top of the rotation for a decade. And because he's homegrown, the Phillies could get ace-level pitching without adding significantly to their payroll. A Wheeler/Nola/Sanchez/Suarez/Painter rotation probably puts a 100-win season in play.
In 2025, however, managing Painter's health will be the club's primary concern. He will likely spend time in the rotation, but it's unclear how many innings the Phillies will let him throw.
