The MLB Winter Meetings will kick off on Dec. 9 in Dallas, at which point the hot stove should really start to churn.
However, there's been plenty of rumors to discuss in the days leading up to what's typically one of the most active weeks in terms of baseball transactions. Here is the latest analysis on some potentially available star players, and how, if at all, they would fit with the Phillies.
Why We're Talking About Him: Whether they want to be or not, the Astros are at a bit of an inflection point in the greatest era in franchise history. Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander are free agents, while Tucker and Framber Valdez can hit the open market after 2025.
Given how owner Jim Crane has operated, it does feel a bit unlikely that the Astros will both re-sign Bregman and keep Tucker beyond 2025. There's definitely an argument for choosing Tucker, who is entering his age-28 season over Bregman, who will turn 31 shortly after Opening Day.
But Bregman is a franchise icon, and probably one of the five best players in the history of the team. General manager Dana Brown has called retaining Bregman "our biggest priority."
That led to Chandler Rome of The Athletic writing this Wednesday, which intrigued some Phillies fans about the possibility of Houston re-signing Bregman and trading Tucker.
"Making either Tucker or Valdez available in trade discussions may be the easiest path for Houston to balance its present and future. Both men are estimated to make more than $15 million in their final trip through the arbitration process. Next winter, both will demand the sort of free-agent deals Crane is loath to give. Parting with either Valdez or Tucker would not signal a rebuild, but would bring back the sort of prospect haul to help stabilize a fledgling farm system."
Phillies-Centric Thoughts: First off, it should be noted that Rome was speculating more than anything. There's not any indication that the Astros are currently shopping Tucker.
However, if they did, Tucker is pretty close to the type of player you back the truck up for via trade. A right shin contusion limited Tucker to just 78 games last season, and he still managed to hit 23 home runs and post a 4.2 WAR, per FanGraphs. While you'd probably be asking him to play left field for the next two seasons with Nick Castellanos still under contract, Tucker does have a Gold Glove Award on his resume in right field as well.
ALL HAIL THE KING. pic.twitter.com/n6bIvxCbad
Trading for Tucker with the thought that you would have a good chance to re-sign him with J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber coming off the books after 2025 is an interesting idea.
Still, I have never forgotten how dismayed managing partner John Middleton was when the Phillies reassigned former general manager Matt Klentak in October of 2020. He talked about how with rare exceptions, the Phillies hadn't developed talent well for much of their history.
Since then, the Phillies have done a much better job at building their farm system, even if they don't have the type of pipeline of a team like the Baltimore Orioles. I just wonder whether Middleton would have the stomach for the Phillies purging their system — let's say making a deal headlined by Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford and Starlyn Caba — to acquire a star like this via trade. It might help the Phillies to maximize the final year or two with this current core, but it also could leave them without young talent to take over in a few years as this group ages.
Why We're Talking About Him: Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that the Phillies have "checked in on" both Holmes and Tommy Kahnle, two key cogs in the bullpen for the New York Yankees last year.
#Phillies — Who May Only Add One Late-Inning Reliever — ‘Checked In on' Pair of Former Yankees, per @mattgelb.bsky.social.
Analysis on @onpattison.bsky.social: onpattison.com/news/2024/de...
— Tim Kelly (@timkellysports.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 11:07 AM
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Phillies-Centric Thoughts: At his best, Holmes is one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, as evidenced by the fact that he's been an All-Star two times in the last three years.
He also struggles with control at times, which contributed to him losing the closer's job for the Yankees in September when he posted a 6.00 ERA and blew three saves.
Particularly if the Phillies only plan to add one high-priced reliever this offseason, Holmes feels like too much of a roll of the dice. Is it hard to imagine him having a great season as the closer for the Phillies in 2025? No. But it's also not difficult to envision that signing blowing up on the Phillies.
Jeff Hoffman will probably be more expensive, but there's a reason for that.
Why We're Talking About Him: Ken Rosenthal wrote this of Helsley in The Athletic Thursday.
But teams talking to the Cardinals are under the impression the team will hold Helsley, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak does not dispute that point.
“It’s something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have him be part of our organization,” Mozeliak told The Athletic on Thursday.
Phillies-Centric Thoughts: It would be ironic for Helsley to end up in red pinstripes considering he — probably largely due to the numbness he had in his right middle finger at the time — blew the save in Game 1 of the 2022 NLWCS that kind of started this whole era of Phillies baseball.
Make no mistake, though, that wasn't indicative of who Helsley is. In fact, he just won the Trevor Hoffman Award as the NL's best reliever for 2024. He set a new franchise record with 49 saves and posted a 2.04 ERA across 65 games for the Cardinals this past season.
Ryan Helsley, Annihilating the Side. pic.twitter.com/IVdlSqDoV3
It would seem strange for the Cardinals to carry a star closer into his contract year when they've acknowledged they're going to take a step back in 2025 and divert resources to player development. Relievers are volatile in general, and for as great as Helsley is, he regularly tops 100 mph, which carries quite a bit of injury risk.
Regardless of whether the Cardinals trade the 30-year-old righty or not, I'm a bit skeptical that the Phillies would trade major resources for a closer, who they also presumably would have to sign to a big deal as well. Right or wrong, the Dombrowski Era in Philly hasn't featured really any investments in relievers near that magnitude.
That's not to say that after a postseason series where the bullpen collapsed that there isn't a case to be made for the Phillies overcorrecting by trading for Helsley or Devin Williams of the Milwaukee Brewers. But I'll believe it when I see it.
Why We're Talking About Him: Rosenthal also wrote Thursday that "Cleveland is open to trade offers for Thomas."
Phillies-Centric Thoughts: Before acquiring Austin Hays, Thomas was a popular trade target among Phillies fans. The aforementioned Gelb even reported at one point that the Phillies were interested in Thomas, then a member of the Washington Nationals.
Ultimately, though, the Phillies opted for Hays, and Thomas was traded to the Guardians. Gelb later wrote that "they liked Thomas but viewed him as a platoon player, while Washington valued him higher." Obviously, the Hays deal didn't work out, and he's since been non-tendered. And the Phillies find themselves again in search of either a left or center fielder, ideally one who can hit right-handed.
Play No. 32 of 2024: Lane Thomas crushes a go-ahead grand slam in a winner-take-all ALDS Game 5 💥 pic.twitter.com/uSPU5ZtEAp
So would it make sense to circle back on Thomas? Possibly, but Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors has projected that Thomas will earn $8.3 million in 2025, his final year of arbitration eligibility. That would be a lot to give to someone that you planned to play mostly only against left-handed pitchers. Thomas did have an .878 OPS against lefties last year, but just a .647 OPS against righties. So the Phillies might have been correct in viewing him more as a platoon option. Having Thomas, Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas try to fill center and left field isn't a horrible idea, but there may be cheaper options that would deliver similar production to Thomas.
It's also worth pointing out that while Thomas did hit a grand slam of Tarik Skubal in Game 5 of the ALDS, he also batted only .209 after being traded to the Guardians. It's not as though the Phillies looked foolish for not trading for him, even with the disappointment of the Hays acquisition.
Not Surprisingly, It Doesn’t Sound Like the #Phillies Will Trade Bryson Stott
onpattison.com/news/2024/de...
— Tim Kelly (@timkellysports.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 1:38 PM
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